Us recession dating
Because recessions have many potential causes, it is a challenge to predict them.The behavioral patterns of numerous economic variables—including credit volume, asset prices, and the unemployment rate—around recessions have been documented, but although they might be the cause of recessions, they could also be the result of recessions—or in economic parlance, endogenous to recessions.It led to a sharp increase in unemployment—along with substantial declines in output, consumption and investment.There is no official definition of recession, but there is general recognition that the term refers to a period of decline in economic activity.For example, a steep increase in oil prices can be a harbinger of a recession.As energy becomes expensive, it pushes up the overall price level, leading to a decline in aggregate demand.A recession can also be triggered by a country’s decision to reduce inflation by employing contractionary monetary or fiscal policies.
A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough.” Consistent with this definition, the Committee focuses on a comprehensive set of measures—including not only GDP, but also employment, income, sales, and industrial production—to analyze the trends in economic activity. The decision process involves establishing a broad decline in economic activity over an extended period of time, after compiling and sifting through many variables, which are often subject to revisions after their initial announcement.
● The fall in consumption is often small, but both industrial production and investment register much larger declines than that in GDP. ” forthcoming, NBER 2010 International Seminar on Macroeconomics, Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi (eds.).
● They typically overlap with drops in international trade as exports and, especially, imports fall sharply during periods of slowdown. recession prior to 2007 lasted about 11 months and resulted in a peak-to-trough output decline of 1.7 percent.
Using other indicators can also provide a timelier gauge of the state of the economy.
In the United States, the private National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates of U. recessions, uses a broader definition and considers a number of measures of activity to determine the dates of recessions.